My predictions for 2010:

In technology:

• Android will gain enough market share to pose a serious threat to Apple.  Blackberry, while still relevant in the enterprise, will quickly lose on the consumer side of the market.
• Because of Android, and to a lesser extent Blackberry, Apple will be forced to make changes to the iPhone…

1. They will end AT&T exclusivity.  Unfortunately the only other carrier that will offer the iPhone will be T-Mobile because they will not produce a CDMA version.  T-Mo’s 3G network, will also disappoint iPhone users.  Verizon, Sprint, US Cell, et. al. won’t offer it for a few more years when their LTE networks, and the 4G iPhone become available.
2. They will be forced to abandon the App approval process, thereby opening up the iPhone platform to more developers in response to the sharp increase in available Android apps & Cydia apps for Jailbroken iPhones.
3. They will abandon the notification system in the iPhone OS in favor of true background apps.  In typical Apple fashion, though, this will only be available to people who own 3GS and the new 3GS+ iPhones, leaving 2G and 3G users behind.

• The iSlate will be a disappointment.  It will feature a “new” OS that won’t run any iPhone OS or Mac OS apps.
• A revised Apple TV, Roku and Boxee boxes will gain market share and start to eat away at the cable companies, especially after the FCC releases new guidelines for set-top boxes.  The pending merger of NBC & Comcast will become meaningless by the end of the year.

In politics:

• The FCC will pass net neutrality.  It will be completely not what AT&T et al want and will actually provide reasonable consumer protections.
• After passing NN, the FCC will turn to abolishing consumption based billing for internet access as they reclassify ISPs as “common carriers.”
• To spur rural broadband build-outs, the FCC will begin the process to force the separation of ISP from the lines coming into the house.  This will allow third parties to build the rural networks without telco intervention.   Congress will pass legislation to provide these companies subsidies, and money from the USF, to build the networks.
• …however, the FCC will fuck up the last two royally.
• We will see countless delays in the ENDA, and repeals of DoMA and DADT.  Because the Republicans will gain a few seats in the Senate we’ll see them crammed through and passed in the legislative session between the elections in November and when the new members take over.
• Health Reform will pass both chambers of congress after going through conference committee.  Unfortunately, the bill will look a lot like the Senate’s version of the bill, will contain Stupak, and no public option.
• However, in exchange for the public option in the bill, House Democrats will demand, and get, the following:

1. A mid 2010 start date for the mandates that drop pre-existing conditions, demand equal coverage, etc.
2. An immediate start to the “exchanges” by utilizing the existing exchange that is set up for Federal employees
3. A version of Medicare-for-all in the exchange, that is basically the public option they dropped from the bill

• On the plus side of all of this, there will be a swift rift that forms in the Republican party in this election cycle dividing the Beck/Palin supporters with the rest of the Party, Dems will make substantial gains in the House of Representatives, and the Republican party will be severely wounded as they go into the primary season for the 2012 Presidential elections.

Entertainment:

• We will see at least one television network go bust by the end of 2010.
• Or it will decide to drop it’s affiliates and go direct-to-cable
• Leno-in-primetime will not be renewed.  NBC will trade out the 10pm hour to affiliates for a 5th hour of Today.
• Most NBC stations will move their 11pm news up to 10pm. Some will expand it to 1:35, as NBC will keep the start time of Conan at 11:35.

Personally:

• I will either change jobs or finally get my own production house off the ground.

Technorati Tags: 2010, predictions

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Posted in Commentary

So… Today is the Transgender Day of Remembrance. You might be asking “why am I blogging about this?” Well it’s simple… I’m blogging in support of friends. Friends who I worry about every day. Friends who I care for. Friends who I fear could end up being a victim of a senseless hate crime just for being themselves.

“just another dead fag
to you that’s all
just another light missing
on a long taxi ride”

- Tori Amos, “Taxi Ride”

Too many trans-persons are becoming victims of senseless hate crimes. In the past year, more than 160 lives were stripped from this earth. These are women and men who have families, friends, partners. And they all died just because they were being their true selves. For that matter, there is one name on this years list, who was killed not because he was transgendered himself, but because he dared to love and accept a transgendered woman. It’s sad really that this hate exists. The hate that would allow someone to take a fellow human’s life just because of who they are or who they love. It’s not right.

Edit @ 11am 11/20: Quick Note — This morning I’ve now seen 3 different numbers on the number of trans-persons killed. There is the 160 that I saw last night on Questioning Transphobia and reported here. This morning, however, Jenn Dolari is reporting 132 on her Twitter feed, and Pink News & The Bilerico Project are reporting 117. I’m not sure what the actual number is at this point, however, any more than 0 is too many.

“Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger.
Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.”

- Master Yoda

He may have been just a movie character, but his wisdom is spot on in this struggle. The fear of differences is what cost these 160+ people their lives. Because the fear, brought hate, and the hate turned to anger and rage, and that then lead to the suffering. Not of the attacker…but of the victim, their families, friends, and the world at large.

We shouldn’t ever be hating or fearing the differences that people have. It’s the differences that we each bring to the table which make each one of us as a whole, the whole human race, better. We should take the time to learn. To talk. To listen. For then and only the will you see that each person is not that much different than you or I.

“I am beautiful no matter what they say
Words can’t bring me down
I am beautiful in every single way
Yes, words can’t bring me down
So don’t you bring me down today”

-Christina Aguilera, “Beautiful”

These 160+ souls should never have had their lives cut short. They were people with the potential to go on and do great things. Who knows what they could have been or become. The only thing that’s known is that they did not choose to be who they were, or to die at the hands of hate. I encourage everyone to please stop the hate in this world.

The names of the deceased for 2009 can be accessed here.

You can find more information on the Transgender Day of Remembrance here.

And I also encourage everyone to read this article that has a lot of sobering statistics about transgender related crimes, or at least to watch the attached video.

If you would like to know why I chose the lyrics I did, click here.

Technorati Tags: death, friends, hate, remembrance, transgender

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Posted in Commentary

This is from 10/7. It’s Keith Olbermann’s “Special Comment” on Health Care.

Technorati Tags: Health Care, Keith Olbermann, MSNBC

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Posted in Commentary, Television